- This is just a flu
This is more serious. Searchable quotes from
World Health Organization:
- "The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual
–
is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza"
- "fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza"
- "crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between
3-4%.
For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%." - so tens times more
3-4% are average numbers across all groups, but for older people they are much higher - 8% for 70 years old,
almost 15% for 80 and older
- Most will get through with just mild simptoms
Younger healthier adults - maybe, but our parents and colleagues with heart problems want to live too.
- For serious cases there will be doctors
Unless there are too many cases and not enough Intensive Care Units for infected.
WHO: 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection,
requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation.
High numbers of infected makes those 20% of serious case too high for hospitals to handle.
- But we have not so many cases in our country
We need to do all possible to keep so. It starts with small numbers,
but with reproductive number 2 means it can grow high, quickly.
How quick is doubling (exponential) growth?
Imagine a chess board. Place a grain of wheat on first square,
two grains on second, four - on third, and so on, doubling each time.
So, roughly, to cover all chess board, how much bags of wheat wil you need?
Show answer
1,199,000,000,000 metric tons.
This is about 1645 times the global production of wheat (~780 million tonnes in 2019).
Not trying to extrapolate, not everyone will get ill,
but unless precaution meathers taken, epidemy grows big; it is big - pandemy - already now
- Everyone who supposed to get ill, will; cannot contain virus already anyway
We need to do everything we can to stop spreading, or, at least, slow down.
Slowing down is realistic and very important.
Health systems cannot handle sudden peak of cases, but will better serve if those cases will be spread over
longer time. There are
historical evidence from Spanish Flu, it helps not just spread in time, but minimize total counts.
- Ok, so what can we do?
Follow instructions from local health authorities and
recommendations
from World Health Organization's issued or just
staythefuckhome.com.